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Here’s How I See The Election Unfolding

Any Violence Will Be Fleeting

Protests Will Be Crushed

I Hope I Am Wrong

[Updates below]

[Update: 2/14/21 – Denoument: Trump coup defeated – will it be investigated and prosecuted? Listen to the best analysis I’ve seen:

I sense that Trump has already repeatedly laid the foundation for his claim of voting fraud and effectively labelled and demonized his opponents as either violent anti-fascists (ANTIFA), rioters, looters, BLM racists, Marxists or Socialists. He has also cultivated the institutional support of the police, the courts, and the US Justice Department, as well as the backing of violent militia’s, hate groups, and other Brownshirts. The military has been manipulated into a position where they have pledged that they would stand down in any “political” dispute and honor Constitutional outcomes (e.g. Supreme Court decisions, State Legislative actions, police deployments, etc).

The media has largely failed to be explicit about how all this is designed to steal the election and formally impose a Fascist State. They have been diverted by so many other Trump abuses and Tweets. So have the Democrats and most progressives. And very few have called out Trump as a Fascist or defended and supported the various street based protesters.

So, all that paves the way to 2 alternative coup scenarios:

1) The 12th amendment route: Swing States with Republican legislatures (e.g. Pennsylvania, et al) claim fraud, reject the vote counts for Biden, and select Trump electors. This results in neither candidate getting the necessary 270 electoral college votes, which throws the election to the House, where Republicans have 26 State delegations. TRUMP wins, and its all legal. (The Atlantic story outlined this scenario, while Greg Pallast has been warning about it for months). OR

2) Trump (using AG Barr, Republican Party lawyers, & loyal State Attorneys General & State officials) challenges state vote counts. The challenges wind up in the Supreme Court. Justice Kavanaugh has already laid the groundwork for relying on State LEGISLATURES over all other state powers (Courts, Governors). Chief Justice Roberts will defend the integrity and legitimacy of the Court, with Justice Barrett casting the deciding vote in a 5-4 decision. Trump wins, and it’s all legal.

The only way to stop this is for there to be massive and sustained nation-wide non-violent uprisings in the streets and general strike. Shut down the economy – as Mario Savio said “throw your body on the gears”.

I don’t think the Democrats and the general public have the spine for that.

There is no organized and powerful labor movement to make a general strike a reality.

The Left is small, disorganized, and has no discipline. The few real anti-fascist are local and similarly disorganized and their anarchist tendencies oppose discipline and organization. Many will be sucked right into street violence and spur police suppression or reaction by violent and murderous well armed Trump Brownshirts.

If there are sporadic uprisings, an already planned national coordinated campaign by local police, who clearly favor Trump, will crush local protests quickly, much like they crushed Occupy.

Trump will use militarized federal police forces (ICE, Border Patrol, DHS, etc) and maybe even nationalize the National Guard in a handful of states where protests last a week or so.

Pro-Trump Brownshirts will be deployed in some places and terrorize people while police stand down (just like the Trump Train in Texas and other weekend events).

Congressional Democrats will hold press conferences, but do nothing with legislative power.

The press will editorialize but be called Fake News by Trumpers.

Protests that are not violently crushed will fade out in 2-3 weeks.

There will be a huge  Pink Pussy Hat 2.0 protest in DC on Inaugural Day – it will be violently suppressed.

There will be no bottom to what Trump and fellow Republicans will do in second term. As they say, all options will be on the table.

Wolfe – 11/3/20

Flagstaff Arizona

PS – I wonder if this post will past through Twitter censors?

[Update – 12/28/20 – Technically, it ain’t over yet. Ted Rall’s scenario makes several of the points I made in the original post below, including the importance of a neutral (non-interventionist) Pentagon and US military, the role of local cops, Trump’s control of federalized police forces and the “MAGA goons”. There’s a Jan. 6 DC Trumper rally by “Women For America First” – which could be just an ironic spoof on the Pink Pussyhat Resistance, but one never knows. see:

[Update – 11/21/20 – This is the first time I’ve read of this July 2020 US Supreme Court unanimous decision, written by Justice Kagan, that absolutely destroys Trump’s strategy to flip Republican states by elector slates that contradict the popular vote (h/t/ Digby).

It is incredible that all the news coverage that has highlighted that possibility has failed to report this Supreme Court decision, which very clearly makes that strategy impossible.

In other words, the Trump coup via flipping Republican State electors was basically always bullshit that was hyped by the media (from The Atlantic article to Greg Pallast to The NY Times and WaPo).

I fell for it too, because I read that same media – without doing my own research.

How many times do we have to get duped by media? This nis actually worse than the reporting on Russia-gate. ~~~ end update.]

Update – 111/19/20 – I guess you could say we called this one! The NY Times reports today:

President Trump’s false accusations that voter fraud denied him re-election are causing escalating confrontations in swing states across the country, leading to threats of violence against officials in both parties and subverting even the most routine steps in the electoral process.

This call wasn’t hard because Trump openly said this was exactly what he was going to do and many people wrote about this in detail and issued warnings, long before the election. ~~~ end update]

Update: 11/11/20 – NYT columnist Thomas Edsall identifies a third option to my prior two: under “continuity of government” law, Trump has extraordinary emergency powers he could invoke, including Marshall law. ~~~ end update]

Update: Tuesday AM, 11/10/20 – Just as we expected, the NY Times reports that Republicans and AG Barr are lining up behind Trump’s attempted coup:

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the top Republican in Congress, on Monday threw his support behind President Trump’s refusal to concede the election, declining to recognize President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory as he argued Mr. Trump was “100 percent within his rights” to challenge the outcome. ~~~ end update]

Update: Saturday AM, 11/7/20 – As the votes are still being counted and the planned massive street protests have gone the same way as the Blue Wave Trump-Republican repudiation, let’s do a quick update and see how my scenario below – written at 9 am Tuesday Election Day – has played out thus far.

We’ll rely on Paul Street’s superb “early reflections and declare considerable vindication, thus far.

The threat of judicial coup by Supreme Court al la Bush v. Gore 2000 remains, but is being either ignored or dismissed by mainstream media.

The threat of Republican State legislature’s defying voting results remains an outstanding threat, yet to be determined, a fact you can finally find buried in this underwhelming NY Times story – What Happens When the Election Results Are Contested:

A state legislature has the authority under the Constitution to appoint the state’s electors, regardless of the status of the popular vote.   ~~~ end update]

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