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DEP Water Supply Planning Still Fails To Respond To Climate Change Impacts

DEP Bypassed Legislatively Established Water Supply Advisory Council

Yesterday, the Murphy DEP cancelled the scheduled meeting of the Water Supply Advisory Council (WSAC):

Please note that the June 23, 2023 meeting of the NJ Water Supply Advisory Council has been cancelled.  The next anticipated WSAC meeting is scheduled for July 21, 2023.  More details will be available closer to the date.

The WSAC (Council) was created by the Legislature as the vehicle for the public, experts, and other interested parties (aka “Stakeholders”) to provide input to the Department’s management of water supplies, particularly the ongoing update of the Water Supply Plan, including considerations regarding DEP’s issuance of drought advisories.

Today, bypassing the Council’s input, the DEP issued a press release advising the public to conserve water, see:

• MURPHY ADMINISTRATION URGES PUBLIC TO CONSERVE WATER HEADING INTO SUMMER AS DRY WEATHER PERSISTS

Obviously, yesterday DEP knew that they would be issuing this advisory today. So the cancellation of the WSAC meeting can only be interpreted as a move to bypass their prior briefing, consultation, and input.

Importantly, in addition to bypassing the WSAC, for the first time I can recall, the DEP press release included a quote from a private water purveyor (DEP Press Release – emphasis in original):

“As the largest water and wastewater service provider in the state, we understand the importance of conserving our most precious resource, especially during the summer months,” said Mark McDonough, president of New Jersey American Water. “Incorporating wise water practices into your daily life throughout the season can help us avoid more stringent restrictions as temperatures continue to climb. As an added bonus, using less water will also result in a lower water bill.”

[Update: The DEP press release urging water conservation, is essentially a new informal step in the DEP’s drought emergency framework, which is a phased sequence, e..g. see: 7:19-13.1

Public education on water conservation and drought is a good thing. But the fact that the press office is the lead in this DEP exercise of non-emergency powers under DEP regulations, and that there are no technical criteria and standards guiding this process, and that private water companies are involved in shaping the message, should disturb those that support science and law based government.

And to state the obvious principle that seems to have been completely abandoned, DEP is a regulatory agency and NJ American is a regulated entity. There is supposed to be at least an arms’ length relationship, and in most cases, an adversarial one.~~~ end update]

So, in addition to bypassing the Council, the Murphy DEP is giving preferential access and working closely behind the scenes with a private corporate water purveyor NJ American Water.

Why should NJ American Water have greater access to and influence on DEP than the WSAC and the public? Obviously their corporate interests conflict with the public interest.

Interestingly, just 3 weeks ago, I wrote to Murphy DEP Commissioner LaTourette and legislative leaders to warn about and convey an Audit of the California water supply planning program.

That Audit found that California regulators failed to consider the huge impacts and implications of climate change on water supplies. I urged DEP and Legislators to oversee DEP’s planning to assure consideration of climate change.

One of the projected impacts of climate change is significant fluctuations in normal rainfall patterns, including prolonged periods of little rainfall and drought, along with increased temperatures, both of which stress water supplies.

Thus far, DEP has considered climate change driven increased rainfall in some flood and stormwater regulations. The DEP flood rules are seriously flawed, but at least DEP considered climate science and incorporated new standards and methods in DEP regulations.

But DEP has not incorporated climate impacts in the ongoing update of the Water Supply Plan and DEP water allocation and other water supply management regulations.

[Update: Here’s how the current DEP Water Supply Plan gives climate impacts rhetorical treatment, with only a commitment to “monitor” climate impacts and “respond” – the opposite of planning! (also note the passive voice “there has been concern”, the downplaying or risks (as probability) and focus on the future, as if impacts are not already happening now): (@ p. 37-38)

There has been concern with the possibility of changing climate in the future. The NJDEP’s Science Advisory Board, Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Standing Committee was asked to weigh on the potential impact of such changes on water supply. The Committee reviewed available literature and issued a report of findings. The final report cited the probability of increased frequency of extreme high temperatures, decreased frequency of extreme low temperatures, a lengthening of the frost-free season, and an increased short-term hydrologic variability. This report then lists a number of potential impacts on water supply. The report concludes “All of these studies and informational resources indicate that climate change will make extreme events, including floods, heat waves, and droughts, more likely. They stress the need to build capacity at the local, regional, and state level to develop and institutionalize strategies to cope with extreme events.” NJDEP is committed to monitoring and responding to events in such a way as to preserve the water supply of the State as well as working to ensure an adequate supply into the future.

That is totally lame and ignores the climate science. (and the science DEP cites in the Plan is 16 years old, see the sources DEP cites: 1) Frumhoff, P.C., McCarthy J.J., Melillo, J.M., Moser, S.C., and Wuebbles, D.J., 2007; and 2) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Summary for Policymakers: Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report, 18 p and 3) Union of Concerned Scientists, 2006, Climate change in the U.S. northeast: A report of the Northeast Climate Im- pacts Assessment, Cambridge Mass., 52 p.)

But it gets worse. The DEP Science Advisory Board Report (2016) DEP cited in the above WS Plan excerpt also includes this recommendation, which DEP left out because it directly contradicts their “monitor and react” approach”: (@ page 11)

These recommendations are:

1) Strengthen climate change preparedness and adaptation in New Jersey through the establishment of a statewide climate adaptation policy that is designed to significantly reduce New Jersey’s vulnerabilities to a changing climate. This would be implemented by directing integration of science-based standards into state policies, programs and regulations and directing actions consistent with the statewide policy be taken by State agencies, regional and local planning authorities and commissions, municipal and county government. […]

The SAB recommends that these resources be used to provide general guidance on climate change adaptation, and stresses that developing capacity to adapt to extreme events such as floods and other storms, heat stress, and drought, before they happen is very likely significantly more cost-effective than attempting to adapt to extreme events after they happen. The SAB further stresses that although their timing cannot be predicted, it is virtually certain that extreme climate change-related events will occur with increasing frequency.

So, here’s the California Audit and letter – hopefully, DEP will consult with the public and WSAC in updating the current Water Supply Plan to consider climate change impacts.

———- Original Message ———-

From: Bill WOLFE <>

To: “shawn.latourette@dep.nj.gov” <shawn.latourette@dep.nj.gov>, senbsmith <SenBSmith@njleg.org>, sengreenstein <sengreenstein@njleg.org>, “Hoffman, Jeffrey L.” <Jeffrey.L.Hoffman@dep.nj.gov>

Cc: Robert Hennelly <rhennelly55@gmail.com>

Date: 06/02/2023 2:50 PM PDT

Subject: Audit of Water Supply Methods

Dear Commissioner LaTourette, State Geologist Hoffman, and Chairman Smith:

I write to provide an interesting and relevant audit Report conducted by the California State Auditor of the California State Water Resources Control Board regarding water supply planning methods.

The audit found:

“we determined that DWR has made only limited progress in accounting for the effects of climate change in its forecasts of the water supply and in its planning for the operation of the State Water Project. Until it makes more progress, DWR will be less prepared than it could be to effectively manage the State’s water resources in the face of more extreme climate conditions.”

• DWR Has Not Adequately Ensured That Its Water Supply Forecasts Account for the Effects of Climate Change

• DWR Must Do More to Prepare for the Impact of More Severe Droughts on the State Water Project’s Operations

For the full Audit, see:

https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/2022-106/index.html

While NJ does not face the magnitude or severity of California’s water crisis, I trust that the Department will find the audit’s findings and methodological recommendations of interest in relation to updates of the NJ Water Supply Plan.

Similarly, I suggest that Chairman Smith might consider either directing a similar audit by the NJ State Auditor or Comptroller, or perhaps hold legislative oversight hearings on these important climate related issues.

Respectfully,

Bill Wolfe